Minerva's *Special Book*
“And how many do you think will be Gryffindors?” Albus asked, “60 percent? 70 percent?”
It had been a few days since the initial meeting about the plans for next year and the details had mostly been sorted out. Now of course, it was time for the most important part of the whole process - the books.
Minerva was in charge of keeping track of this, and had been given a special book to this end, but everyone involved could make their own predictions on odds, and indeed place their own bets. Next year they may open up the bets to the rest of the staff. For now though, it was just the Senior Leadership Team. That is to say, the four Heads of Houses and the Headmaster.
It was unanimously decided that Hagrid should have no involvement in this part.
“Hah!” snorted Severus, “More like 6 percent. Your precious lions are so unbelievably obtuse that they’ll all get stuck on the second obstacle. No, most of those who succeed will be snakes and eagles. We are quite simply far superior in every conceivable way, as I’m sure Filius will also tell you.”
"Quite right, quite right," the pint-sized Head of Ravenclaw chimed in predictably. Those two were always ganging up on her and Albus.
Miffed, Minerva opened her mouth to deliver a scathing retort, before she was interrupted by Pomona.
"I don't mean any disrespect, Minnie, but they have got a point," she soothed, earning a half-hearted glare.
Truth be told, she knew that the three of them had a point, as much as she hated to admit it. The majority of her lions wouldn't know subtlety if it danced naked in front of them playing the bagpipes.
Take Fred and George Weasley as an example. Some of their pranks could be considered mildly entertaining, except they usually insisted on all these extravagant displays. She understood having pride, she really did. But could they not just get through even one week without having faulty prototype fireworks going off during dinner?
So yes, she did agree with her esteemed colleagues in this instance. The real question was did she agree with Severus about their chances of success?
They would all no doubt flock to the third floor corridor the day it was declared out of bounds. And most of them weren't too bad about sneaking around Filch and Mrs Norris. Albus' 'puppy' might give them some trouble, but they would eventually find a way around it. Even if it was just by cramming the entire house into that one room so the thing couldn't move to eat any of them. The Devil's Snare would probably be alright given that it was combatable with a basic charm that even First Years knew, and Flying was well liked among the denizens of Gryffindor House so Filius' task should be a doddle.
No, the real issues would come later. Her chess game, which she was extremely proud of, required strategic planning in droves, and try as she might Minerva just could not think of more than a handful of her students who met that criteria. They couldn't approach this task with brute strength because chess required sacrifices, but all the same going solo and playing King was also a bad idea because it was damn near impossible to fight a battle without more than one perspective. That was why chess pieces were originally enchanted to have limited sentience; players could get a feel for what was really going on in each square of the board. It was useful to have a bird's eye view, but there was a reason commander's traditionally led their armies from the front.
The remainder of the course hadn't been fully decided yet. Minerva was sure it would lean more toward the subtlety of her own obstacle than something brutish like a troll. Although, knowing Albus, she couldn't be sure.
Sending one last glare at Severus and Filius she turned the pages of her special book.
"What are we thinking for distribution of those who succeed in terms of age ranges? Will they all be upper years? Or might some curious firsties eager to make a name for themselves attempt to run the gauntlet?"
Filius tapped his chin thoughtfully.
"I think the 7th Years won't be as interested as other years, given that they've got their NEWTs in the summer," he squeaked. "I know my 6th year Ravenclaws are already beginning to panic and they've got over a year to prepare."
"That's a fair point, Fil," agreed Pomona. "Merlin knows some of my badgers can get a bit like that in their exam years. Do you think we can mostly count the 5th Years out as well then?"
Now that was a good question. It would probably be the case in somewhere like Ravenclaw, and maybe even Hufflepuff, but Minerva knew her Gryffindor 5th Years didn't exactly make a habit of taking that year as seriously as maybe they could do. By 7th Year they had usually wizened up. 5th Years, though... There was a reason Gryffindor wasn't known for its exceptional OWL scores.
She voiced these thoughts to the group. Severus in particular seemed to agree. Was this similar to what he had to go through with his snakes then? It was such a pain being the Head of Gryffindor sometimes. The Hufflepuffs were much more well behaved.
Albus steered the conversation back on track, summarising, "So we are predicting that 7th Years will be the least represented, and there won't be many 5th Years either but those who do it will be mostly Gryffindors. Does that sound about right?"
They all nodded.
Minerva jotted it down in her special book on the relevant page. She'd organise it all over the summer so they could all place wagers during the year. There were pages for everything from the subjects chosen by those who succeeded, to whether having long hair had anything to do with the likelihood of getting past all the obstacles. Admittedly that last one was something Albus and Severus had come up with in an attempt to convince Filius that growing his own hair out was a good idea, but it was still a valid category for betting.
Essentially the way the whole thing was going to work was that each category of bets would have a 'prize pot' and everyone could place however much they wanted on a result in a particular category and Minerva would split the 'prize pot' amongst whoever put their names on the winning result(s). The money would be split in proportion to how much money had been originally wagered.
So far there were a few bets placed:
- Albus and Severus had each wagered 5 galleons that most who completed it would have long hair, and Filius had put 5 of his own on the opposite result.
- Albus and Severus had another little disagreement about the Gryffindors with 10 galleons either way that the Weasley Twins would manage it before the end of Yule. That being January 1st, as they were going by the traditional 12 day festival in this. (Personally Minerva agreed with Albus on this one, but she knew better than to get involved.)
- Lastly Albus had placed a third rather curious wager of 100 galleons that Harry Potter would be among those who were successful.
Minerva was planning on placing some money of her lions once she'd seen the line-up next year. She wouldn't presume to make any significant wagers at this stage though. It could all change over the summer. And naturally she'd wait and see what the rest of the staff thought first. Sometimes it was good to get a fresh perspective, like with chess.
Speaking of which...
"Albus," she called as Hadrian and Professor Burbage walked into the staffroom bickering, for about the fiftieth time this year, about Merlin knew what. "Fancy a game?"